Sunday, May 25, 2008

The Friday night game is like a dream come true

seriously. There is a lot of questionable play going on out there. We played for about six or six and a half hours on Friday night, and over the course of that time ten people played. About an hour or so before we quit, there were only four players remaining, and everyone who had already left did so with no chips at all. In a cash game, this is unusual (well, at least in the Friday night game, it is.).

However, a lot of the players who went broke simply didn't have to. For instance, if there have been two, maybe three raises before the flop already and it's on you with the AJ suited, you should almost always fold if the stacks are deep.

Wait a minute, ace-jack suited is a fold, you say? In a word, yes. Think about it. If an opponent raises before the flop, it's possible you have them beat with AJ. A lot of players will bet with worse hands preflop. However, if it's been bet and raised, what could your opponents have? most likely, it's no worse than ace ten. So, if your opponent is reraising with ace ten, plus, AJ, AQ, AK, and every pair, you're best to fold the AJ. you're only a favorite against one of the hands he could be holding. AJ is a tie, you're a coin flip against the pairs 2's through 10's, you're 30% against jacks, and you're a 4 to 1 dog against QQ, KK, AA, AQ, and AQ. Save your money, and wait for a better opportunity, preferably when you can be the aggressor, rather than the caller.

This brings me to the next idea, which is this: Many weak players think only about their cards. This has been said zillions of times before, but let me put it another way. Many weak players ignore things that should be totally obvious, because they are blinded by the (seeming) strength of their hole cards. Players ignore their opponents' actions, and also ignore threatening boards that may signify that their hands are beat.

For example, in a pot from the Friday night game, one of the players flopped top set (three kings) on a QKJ flop with two spades. One of his opponents led out, and he raised. He was called in two spots, putting the original bettor all-in, leaving him heads up for the side pot. However, the turn was a red ace, and after he bet, his opponent raised all-in. He insta-called, saying, "well, I know I have Jake (the short stacked player) beat." I said, "probably not, unless you have the same hand (meaning ace ten for the straight)." He said "no, that's not possible," to which I replied, "well, then you don't have him beat, because he has ace ten. There's ace king queen jack out there." and then he groans and goes "oh, well that screws me then."
At this point, I was seriously shocked. From his body language, and the way our little conversation went, I could tell. He had no idea, and in fact hadn't even considered, that his opponents could possibly have him beat. Even though four parts of Broadway (the ace high straight) were clearly on board, he wasn't thinking about it. He didn't even know a straight was possible, probably. But the thing is, he's not going to get raised all in on fourth street if his opponent doesn't have a ten. Of course, Jake showed him the AT, and his other opponent the T4 of spades, and the two straights chopped his money when the board didn't pair on the river.

In poker, we have to strive not just to win a lot when we have the best of it, but also to lose the minimum when we have the worst of it. Saving and earning money are two hand-in-hand components.

The lesson here is just because they're pocket kings doesn't mean they are good no matter what the betting is and what the board is. You always have to think about what your opponents might have, especially on dangerous boards. In this hand, the KK improved to top set on the flop. Sometimes top set is no good. In fact, here, it was already beat on the flop. What is a set when there are four cards to a straight out there and two opponents have gone all in? It's a fold, that's what it is.

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