Tuesday, March 4, 2008

A bitter defeat

Last night's Monday game was an unlucky one for me, and I scored no points, going out fairly early. Early on in the tournament, I made a mistake in a hand with the jack-ten, and bluffed off 15-20% of my stack. However, within a round or two of the blinds, I had recovered from this and was back up to right around my initial stack total. I resolved to not get crazy and try any bluffs that would overextend me, especially since I figured I would later be able to get the money in as a monster favorite.
Fortunately, I was right about that. Unfortunately, monster favorites get taken out by huge underdogs when the dog catches a miracle board. Twice, I got all of my money in against Dale as a big favorite, and twice I was sucked out on. In the first pot, I went in with about $20, and since Dale only had around ten, I was still in okay shape, though hurt. In this pot, I held the AK against Dale's AQ of spades. There was enough raising and reraising preflop that Dale should have folded his AQ. I know AQ suited is hard for beginning players to ever release preflop, but sometimes it is so clear that you are beat with the AQ that you absolutely must fold it. Still, he got his money in before the flop and I watched in agony as the queen of diamonds fell on the flop.
The second pot was also against Dale. After he raised to $1.50 and got one caller preflop, I raised it up to $9.40 to go. Even though this represented well over 80% of Dale's total stack, he decided to call with KJ offsuit!!!! Of course, people hate reading complaints about bad beats, but regardless of what fell, this is just a terrible call. Why put your whole tournament on the line with KJ? at best you're 50-50 against me. I'm a tight player! What's the worst hand I could have here? If I'm way out of line, KQ suited, maybe. But probably not. You're most likely looking at AK, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, or AA. Dale's hand is a huge underdog to the AK, AA, and KK, and a substantial dog to the QQ and JJ. He's only in quasi-reasonable shape if I have TT or a smaller pair. But here's the thing - even if he could see my cards, and knew I had tens (I didn't - I had queens), he should still fold! Why would you want to risk your tournament by calling yourself into a coinflip for all your chips? Even worse, a 30-70 proposition like it actually turned out to be with KJ vs. QQ?
Nonetheless, though I was eliminated by a 4th street king, I'll try to be diplomatic about it. I didn't want to get beat there, but I do want my opponents making those kinds of calls, especially when I'm a 70% + favorite to win the hand. In tournaments, these are exactly the ideal situations to get your money in, and the fact that I was doing that makes me feel better about it.
I rebought, and survived through the end of the rebuy period and one more level of blinds before being dealt pocket kings in the same hand in which Dale was dealt pocket aces. This is what poker players refer to as a cold deck, meaning that there's no way to avoid getting stacked. Dale raised to $4 preflop, which amounted to 23% of my stack. With KK, I clearly can't fold here. I raised him the remaining $13.25, saw the bad news, and went home.
I'm still in first place, but the people behind be are certainly creeping up. However, I'm confident that if I keep playing AK against AQ, and QQ against KJ, I'll be scoring more points in the future.

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