Sunday, March 23, 2008

implied odds

I played in a home game last night that consisted of John, Lee, Jesse, Dale, Eric, Josh, and me (as always, see previous blogs for more info on some of these players). It was a pretty sweet deal, and was basically in a way a continuation of the Friday Night game, since so many of the same faces were there. We played until almost 3 in the morning, but it was a pretty good game, and I ended up with almost $40 in profit.
However, what I wanted to discuss here is actually a hand from Friday's game. About four players limped in, and I was on the small blind with the 9T offsuit, and completed the blind. Eric, to my left, checked his option, and the flop came 378, giving me two overs and an up-and-down straight draw. I decided to play the hand aggressively (after all, if you're going to play a hand, play it), and check-raised the flop, leaving only Eric and I contesting the pot when fourth street came off. It was a red ace, meaning no flushes would be possible in the hand. Continuing my aggression from the previous street, I bet out $2, and Eric raised $3 more. I wasn't happy that he was raising, but even if he flat-called, I'd have to figure I was behind in the hand. However, his raise was, in my opinion, so small that I had to continue to draw to my straight, and I called the $3. The river was a jack, giving me the best possible hand, a jack-high straight. I led out for $5, and was raised $5 more by Eric. I called, showing him the nuts, and took the pot down. Eric, frustrated, showed A8 for top two and mucked.
He contends that I shouldn't have called his $3 raise on the turn, since I wasn't getting the necessary odds to draw to only eight outs. Let's leave aside the fact that I don't think he's calculating/remembering the size of the pot correctly, and presume he was correct in that. I still think it was correct for me to draw to my straight. Eric contends that the pot was $10.50 when I had to call the $3, in which case I'd be getting 3.5 : 1 pot odds, where I was a 4.75 :1 underdog to hit my hand. However, Eric is not taking into consideration the implied odds. That is, it becomes correct for me to take slightly unfavorable odds if I know I can make up the difference on the next round if I make my hand. As it turns out, the difference if the pot was $10.50 is only $3.75. As the reader will recall from my example, I made $10 on the river. Actually, In my opinion, the biggest error I made in the hand was not shoving all-in (or at least reraising) on the river.
In order to keep me from drawing to my hand, a bigger raise on the turn would have done it. Also, shoving after my checkraise on the flop would have forced me to fold. All in all, I think I played it okay, though it's still a subject of debate. Of course, I won't be the one to explain implied odds to my opponents...

1 comment:

Red Scare said...

no assessment of last night's game? I was hoping to hear your thoughts. Good to see you by the way. Once I can finish all the current theory I'm reading, I can get to poker theory! Will have to play you before I move to Raleigh. And then we'll play chess for money....