Sunday, March 16, 2008

Please don't put all your money in as a 41 to 3 underdog if you want to win at poker

Well, despite the title of this post, my last game was a winning session. However, it almost wasn't. I was playing all right, and I got into a pot where I was on the button against Marc. I called in position before the flop with the KQ suited. The flop came KJT, with no suits, and as Marc bet out, I knew I had a superior hand. He bet out about $2 , and I raised him up to $6 or $7, which he eventually called. At this point, the pot was getting on up there, about $20. I decided that Marc was calling light and I decided that if a king or a blank arrived on the turn, I was really going to apply the pressure. Lo and behold, a black six arrived on the turn. Marc checked to me, and I went all-in for about $28. He called, but didn't turn over his hand when I showed my KQ, which let me know he was still drawing. When the queen came on the river, I knew he had hit broadway. He declared "straight" and scooped the pot, showing Ace-four! His only outs were the queens, one of which I held.
Poker does interesting things to your mind. If I went up to someone on the street and said "I'll bet you $28 even money that you can cut the deck and it won't be a queen" they'd be insane to take you up on that. In poker, people do that kind of stuff, and sometimes they cut to the queen. However, as long as they keep cutting the deck, you'll get your $28 back eventually. Actually, the "cut-to-the-queen" proposition has one advantage over the draw to broadway, in that all four queens would still be in the deck. Of course, there would also be no pot from future streets to win in addition to the $28.
And, as a matter of fact, I was able to reload for $40 and stage a solid comeback, winning back my initial $40 and a $40 profit by the end of the night.

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