Saturday, February 9, 2008

A slight favorite

Here's a very interesting hand I played (and ended up losing) to Lee in a game we played for a dollar recently:

Me:
At this point, I was on the button and since Lee had been checking his option recently I opted to call here to try to see a flop. I figured I was at worst a 2 to one dog, and getting three to one, this was okay. The actual odds, later checked on the CardPlayer.com odds calculator, were 60/37 in favor of Lee, with a 3% chance of a spit.


Lee:

He checked, and an extremely interesting flop came out...






Flop:
On the flop, he checked it to me, and I bet about 2/3 of the pot with my pair of sixes, since I figured I had quite a bit of outs - diamons, sevens, sixes, and as it turned out, nines. I was surprised, then, when Lee then came over the top with a raise! At this point, I was getting probably a little over two to one on my money, and even if my nines and sixes were no good, I could still hit one of my remaining twelve outs on fourth or fifth street. Being a little short stacked, I decided to push, not minding taking down the pot right there. Though I was relieved that the nines and sixes were indeed live, I was unlucky on subsequent cards and it turned out to be the last hand of the freezeout. Immediately after the hand we checked the odds, and it turns out that I was actually a 26:23 favorite on the flop (in other words I would win about 54% of the time in this spot)!
Anyway, it's 4:30 in the morning, so good night. Also, the new part of the video is up, and I just got the new CardPlayer, so maybe I'll put something up here about an article from it soon.

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